COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio voters already are turning out in droves to cast ballots in the first days of early voting for the Aug. 8 special election, eclipsing turnout several times over for the same time period during last year’s May primary.

Last week, 66,314 Ohioans voted, compared to the 11,935 who did so during the first four days of early voting in May 2022. That’s more than four times as many ballots cast statewide for the Aug. 8 election, which will decide the fate of State Issue 1, than in the May election that featured a competitive GOP primary for U.S. Senate, a contested Democratic primary for governor and down-ballot races on both sides of the aisle.

It’s unclear what the surge in early voting, which is particularly pronounced in urban and suburban areas, could foretell for State Issue 1, which would make it harder to amend the Ohio Constitution. Ohio hasn’t had a statewide August election to decide a ballot issue in more than a century, leaving it without a modern direct comparison.

Voters could be banking their votes before jetting off for summer vacations, suggesting an imminent drop-off as Election Day approaches — although early voting typically ramps up closer to Election Day. More voters could be opting to vote in person, instead of voting by mail, leading the results to be recorded faster, although vote-by-mail requests are up, too. Or, it could suggest an unprecedented and unexpected turnout for a plan that could stonewall future efforts to go around the GOP-controlled state legislature to pass direct law changes by asking voters to add them to the state constitution.

Republicans and rural residents also are less likely than Democrats and urban/suburban residents to vote early, which means there could be higher turnout in Republican areas on Election Day, although the Ohio Republican Party and the campaign working to pass Issue 1 are emphasizing early voting as part of a broader GOP push.

“We’re encouraged because we’re seeing strong participation so far,” said Jen Miller, president of the Ohio League of Women Voters, which advocates for voter participation and opposes State Issue 1. “But in the 200-year history of our state, the state legislature never has put an issue of such great importance on an August special election. So there’s no way to really estimate what turnout ultimately will be in the end.”

Need to Know: How to register, where to vote, when the polls are open

Aaron Ockerman, director of the Ohio Elections Officials Association, said he’s heard from rural, urban and suburban elections officials alike who have described a surge in in-person early voting around the state.

“We are not sure whether or not this is just a concerted effort by both sides to get their voters out early, or whether or not this is sustained through Election Day,” Ockerman said. “With no historical context, it’s tough to tell.”

On Aug. 8, voters will decide whether to approve State Issue 1, which would make it harder to amend the state constitution by requiring future amendments to get 60% in a statewide vote to pass, compared to the current 50% simple majority standard. It also would make it significantly harder for future amendments to qualify for the ballot by tightening signature-gathering requirements for amendment campaigns.

A “yes’ vote would approve the changes. A “no” vote would reject them.

Projections surrounding voter turnout have been a contentious part of the debate surrounding State Issue 1. August elections historically have had very low turnout, which is why Republican legislators largely banned them last December, saying that schools and other local governments unfairly targeted them to propose tax hikes.

Issue 1 opponents have criticized Republicans for subsequently setting an August election for Issue 1. Low-turnout elections — a scenario that groups including the Ohio Republican Party envisioned for the Aug. 8 election — also carry a different set of political calculations, with campaigns generally focusing on turning out their core supporters rather than persuading the broader electorate. Shifts in what kinds of voters show up at the polls can have dramatic effects on electoral outcomes.

Read more: Read all our State Issue 1 coverage here.

Where are the increases in early voting the highest?

The numbers come from a Plain Dealer / cleveland.com analysis of early-voting data published by Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who historically has announced weekly statewide early-voting numbers, and recently began publishing daily reports. It compares the first four days of early voting for the May 2022 primary election and the first four days of early voting for the August 2023 statewide election, which began last week.

The increase in early votes last week, when compared to the May 2022 election, was particularly pronounced in urban counties, which saw a six-fold increase in the number of early votes, and suburban counties, which saw a seven-fold increase. Early voting was up in rural counties too, but it hasn’t accelerated as quickly as other parts of the state. Rural counties saw three times as many voters cast ballots in the first four days of early voting.

For the analysis, the following counties were categorized as “urban”: Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Lucas, Mahoning, Montgomery, Stark, Summit and Trumbull counties. “Suburban” counties were: Delaware Lake, Lorain, Medina, Warren and Wood. The rest were rural, besides Athens County, which was assigned its own unique category since it is an outlier as a rural, heavily Democratic county.

Higher turnout in more liberal suburban and urban areas likely would bode poorly for State Issue 1, in large part because of its implications for a potential vote in November that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. Republican state legislators scheduled the vote on State Issue 1 in August to attempt to make it more difficult for the abortion measure to pass. Urban and suburban areas, meanwhile, saw some of the highest numbers of voters sign the petitions amendment backers circulated in their bid to qualify for the ballot. Elections officials are reviewing those signatures to see if they submitted the roughly 413,000 valid signatures needed, including a minimum number from 44 of 88 counties, to qualify.

While early voting numbers for the Aug. 8 election show a larger immediate response in areas more likely to reject Issue 1, outstanding absentee ballot requests also suggest the early “no” vote has room to grow.

Last week, another 113,889 voters requested absentee ballots — of which, 72,882, or almost two-thirds came from urban counties — compared to 75,428 during the same period for the May 2022 election. The increase in absentee ballots was particularly concentrated in urban counties, where they were up 90% compared to May 2022, while they were up 50% in suburban counties. They were down slightly, 2.3%, in rural counties.

Cuyahoga County saw the largest increase by far of any county, both in terms of raw votes and on a percentage basis. Last week, 6,938 voters cast early ballots, compared to just 167 during the same period in May 2022. Cuyahoga County also saw the largest percentage increase in absentee ballot requests, with 35,356 requesting vote-by-mail applications compared to 11,026 for the May 2022 election.

Citing early-voting numbers that are more reminiscent of a general election for governor, officials in Cuyahoga County have upgraded their projections for voter turnout there. State Republicans have said it’s not unusual for urban areas like Cuyahoga County to show big early-vote leads, but for the GOP to win the overall vote thanks to their performance on Election Day.

What about the August 2022 election?

The Cleveland.com/The Plain Dealer analysis compared the August 2023 election with the May 2022 election, because every voter in the state had a competitive race to consider in both instances.

Another apt comparison could be the August primary election last year, the only statewide summer election in recent history, when voters chose Republican and Democratic nominees for the state legislature. The race drew record-low turnout, however, in part because many legislative districts didn’t have competitive primary elections. The first week of early voting in August 2022 had just three days, though, compared with four days for the August 2023 election.

The general comparison between the August 2023 and August 2022 elections is similar to the comparison between August 2023 and May 2022. For this Aug. 8 election, nearly 10 times as many people voted during the first week of early voting when compared to the same period for the August 2022 election.

Similarly, the increase in turnout is comparatively driven by higher levels of early voting in urban and suburban areas, up 12 times and 13 times, respectively, compared to a seven-fold increase in rural counties. However, the suburban/urban/rural differences in absentee ballot requests are less pronounced.

Here’s a table showing county-by-county early-vote and absentee-ballot request numbers in all 88 counties, comparing July 11-14, 2023 with April 5-8, 2022 — the first four days of early voting for the Aug. 8, 2023 and May 3, 2022 elections. “All votes” is a combination of early, in-person votes and returned mail ballots.

Here are the top 10 counties, comparing the first week of early voting for the same two elections, sorted by highest percentage increase in total votes cast:

Here are the top 10 counties, sorted by largest percentage increase in absentee ballot requests.

Here are the bottom 10 counties, sorted by smallest percentage increase in total votes:

Here are the bottom 10 counties, sorted by largest drop in absentee ballot requests:

Andrew Tobias covers state politics and government for cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer